Post details: Molecular clocks tell the wrong time!

03/22/07

Permalinkby 12:45:12 pm, Categories: Literature - Articles, 347 words   English (UK)

Molecular clocks tell the wrong time!

Disillusionment with molecular clocks appears to be quite widespread. This paper draws attention to the great disparities that exist in the dates that emerge from these studies. The authors say that they await further work "with some nervousness, given that we suspect they might reveal that many past studies placed too much confidence in simple molecular clock analyses, and that their conclusions should thus be revisited."
Pessimism about the method is high. The worst case scenario is raised with the question: "is there likely to be so much uncertainty about molecular dating that the estimates are no longer useful? We fear that, for many current studies, the answer is yes."
The root problem is that the method has been built on Darwinian foundations. When legitimate concerns about these are addressed (see here), it may be possible do do something useful with the data.

Dates from the molecular clock: how wrong can we be?
Mario J.F. Pulquerio and Richard A. Nichols
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Volume 22, Issue 4, April 2007, Pages 180-184

Abstract: Large discrepancies have been found in dates of evolutionary events obtained using the molecular clock. Twofold differences have been reported between the dates estimated from molecular data and those from the fossil record; furthermore, different molecular methods can give dates that differ 20-fold. New software attempts to incorporate appropriate allowances for this uncertainty into the calculation of the accuracy of date estimates. Here, we propose that these innovations represent welcome progress towards obtaining reliable dates from the molecular clock, but warn that they are currently unproven, given that the causes and pattern of the discrepancies are the subject of ongoing research. This research implies that many previous studies, even some of those using recently developed methods, might have placed too much confidence in their date estimates, and their conclusions might need to be revised.

Last sentence: We await the more rigorous type of assessment with some nervousness, given that we suspect they might reveal that many past studies placed too much confidence in simple molecular clock analyses, and that their conclusions should thus be revisited.

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