The ID Report

by Denyse O'Leary
ARN correspondent

At Intelligent Life (Autumn 2010), in "LIMITS OF SCIENCE," Anthony Gottlieb asks,"Plenty of today's scientific theories will one day be discredited. So should we be sceptical of science itself?":

At the end of her book "Science: A Four Thousand Year History" (2009), Patricia Fara of Cambridge University wrote that "there can be no cast-iron guarantee that the cutting-edge science of today will not represent the discredited alchemy of tomorrow". This is surely an understatement. If the past is any guide-and what else could be? - plenty of today's science will be discredited in future. There is no reason to think that today's practitioners are uniquely immune to the misconceptions, hasty generalisations, fads and hubris that marked most of their predecessors. Although the best ideas of Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, Boyle, Darwin, Einstein and others have stood the test of time and taken their place in the permanent corpus of knowledge, error remains inherent in the enterprise of science. This is because interesting theories always go beyond the data that they seek to explain, and because science is made by people. Examples from recent decades of scientific consensus that turned out to be wrong range from the local to the largest possible scale: acid rain was not destroying forests in Germany in the 1980s, as it was said to have been, and the expansion of the universe has not been slowing down, as cosmologists used to think it was.

Physicists, in particular, have long believed themselves to be on the verge of explaining almost everything. In 1894 Albert Michelson, the first American to get a Nobel prize in science, said that all the main laws and facts of physics had already been discovered. In 1928 Max Born, another Nobel prize-winner, said that physics would be completed in about six months' time. In 1988, in his bestselling "A Brief History of Time", the cosmologist Stephen Hawking wrote that "we may now be near the end of the search for the ultimate laws of nature." Now, in the newly published "The Grand Design", Hawking paints a picture of the universe that is "different ... from the picture we might have painted just a decade or two ago". In the long run, physicists are, no doubt, getting closer and closer to the truth. But you can never be sure when the long run has arrived. And in the short run-to adapt Keynes's proverb-we are often all wrong.

Most laymen probably assume that the 350-year-old institution of "peer review", which acts as a gatekeeper to publication in scientific journals, involves some attempt to check the articles that see the light of day. In fact they are rarely checked for accuracy, and, as a study for the Fraser Institute, a Canadian think-tank, reported last year, "the data and computational methods are so seldom disclosed that post-publication verification is equally rare." Journals will usually consider only articles that present positive and striking results, and scientists need constantly to publish in order to keep their careers alive. So it is that, like the late comedian Danny Kaye, professional scientists sometimes get their exercise by jumping to conclusions. Historians of science call this bias the "file-drawer problem": if a set of experiments produces a result contrary to what the team needs to find, it ends up filed away, and the world never finds out about it.

Yes, indeed, and many people - especially older people - either know or sense this sort of thing. The "theory of everything problem is a huge handicap to getting taken seriously. It is evolutionary psychology (how your inner ape runs your life), for example, that makes Darwin's theory sound ridiculous in many people's eyes, not the bare bones theory itself, which is at least debatable:

Toronto-based Canadian journalist Denyse O'Leary (www.designorchance.com) is the author of the multiple award-winning By Design or by Chance? (Augsburg Fortress 2004), an overview of the intelligent design controversy. She was named CBA Canada's Recommended Author of the Year in 2005 and is co-author, with Montreal neuroscientist Mario Beauregard, of The Spiritual Brain: A neuroscientist's case for the existence of the soul (Harper 2007).