The ID Report

By Robert Deyes
ARN Correspondent

During cloudless nights, the winter months provide an unusually good time for making detailed observations of the night sky. For the amateur astronomer, the Geminids meteorite shower is just one of the celestial highlights in the month of December. While last month's show was disappointing, the 2004 Geminids shower was spectacular as streaming meteorites skimmed over the earth's atmosphere. Perhaps not so well known is the fact that many of the annual meteorite showers are caused by debris from comets that have left 'dirt trails ' as they hurtle through space. The resulting split-second streaks of light are a sight to behold. Nevertheless some fear that it is only a matter of time before a major collision from something much bigger will wipe out all but the smallest forms of life on earth. A review by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Ref 1) on the probability of such collisions noted that on planetary bodies lacking an atmosphere such as Mercury and our own moon, craters are everywhere to be seen as reminders of collisions-past.

There are of course reports of meteorites that have hit relatively recently in our earth's history. In 1947 for example fragments of a 10-meter diameter meteorite crashed into the ground in the remote mountains of Sikhote-Alin in Eastern Siberia (Ref 1). Elsewhere, the 1219 meter-long crater in northern Arizona is believed to have been created around 50,000 years ago by a meteorite spanning 60 meters in diameter. As it impacted it would have produced an explosion equivalent in magnitude to 15 million tons of TNT (Ref 1). And yet the geological record clearly records that ever since an initial pounding of the earth 3.9 billion years ago, the rate of collisions has decreased very significantly (Ref 2, p. 202).

There is no denying that our own atmosphere is an effective shield and, were it not for our atmosphere, the pelting of our earth's surface with cosmic debris might threaten our very existence (Ref 1). In fact most meteors up to about 10 meters in diameter are broken up on contact with the upper regions of our atmosphere. According to the NASA report, there is no recorded case in the last 1000 years of anyone ever having been killed by a meteorite or its fragments (Ref 1). Moreover, the biggest impactors- about 1 mile in length- are a rarity, occurring only about once in every 50-100 million years (Ref 1). While still contentious, one popular model of planetary interactions shows Jupiter providing earth with significant protection from asteroids and comets (Ref 3). The Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet, which blasted and badly bruised Jupiter in 1994, demonstrated the pounding of our Jovian neighbor in spectacular fashion (Ref 4-5).

NASA knows of no comet or asteroid currently on a collision course with earth and, as far as current estimates are concerned, there is no threat of a collision in the foreseeable future (Ref 1). Astronomers are continuously scanning the heavens and making trajectory predictions on bodies that might pose a theoretical risk to earth's habitat while engineers think of ways to prevent the devastation of such impacts. One supercomputer developed by scientists at the Sandia National Laboratories for example, has been able to simulate the effects of a 1 km-wide meteorite hitting the earth's oceans (Ref 3) . Oklahoma State University mathematician Hermann Burchard speculated on the idea of using giant airbags to deflect the trajectory of an oncoming threat (Ref 6).

On a much broader scale, we can begin to truly appreciate the claim that the universe possesses narrowly defined characteristics that makes the existence of life on our earth possible. World-renowned cosmologists Marek Abramowicz and George Ellis have drawn attention to this salient fact. They commented,

"The natural constants in our Universe not only allow for the existence of stable atoms from which matter is formed but also (together with proper initial conditions of the Big Bang) lead to the formation of galaxies and stars, apparently vital features of life" (Ref 7)

Astronomer and theologian Hugh Ross has amassed an impressively long list of 'coincidences' that can only lead us to the conclusion of a purposeful tailoring of our cosmos that is ultimately destined towards our very own existence (Ref 2, pp. 188-193). Everything from the size of our galaxy to the frequency and relative positioning of supernovae explosions, from the number of planets in our solar system to the earth's gravitational pull, from the thickness of the earth's crust to the carbon dioxide, oxygen and water vapor content of our atmosphere and even the rate of tectonic and volcanic activities on our planet seems to fall within narrow permissible windows (Ref 2, pp. 188-193). The number of parameters now extends to over 125, some admittedly more tightly constrained than others.

The albedo- the amount of light that our earth reflects back out into space- is one of the more tightly constrained parameters in Ross' list. If this amount were any greater than it actually is, rapid glaciation of the earth would ensue; any smaller and we would have rampant global warming (Ref 2, p.190). In both cases, the earth would no longer be able to support complex multicellular life. In fact, on the basis of albedo and the distance and size of the parental star (in our case the sun) we can exclude 99.9% of all known planets from the list of potential life-sustaining harbors. The implications of this fact alone are far reaching for it places the probability of finding a planet anywhere in the universe with the precise conditions to support life at 1 in 10 exp144 (Ref 2, p.194). Ross concludes,

"Even with a hundred billion trillion stars in the observable universe, the probability of finding... a single planet capable of supporting physical life is much less that one in a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion. The odds actually are higher that the reader will be killed by a sudden reversal in the second law of thermodynamics" (Ref 2, p.194)

The 'just right' assessment of our cosmos seems to be the best assessment when one is presented with such evidence. Physicist Leonard Susskind was right to ask why it is that the laws and constants of nature are so well-tuned for the existence of life. As Susskind wrote,

"At least one constant of nature, the so-called cosmological constant, is absurdly fine tuned (to more than one hundred decimal places) to be in the range where galaxies, stars and life can form"(Ref 8)

Theologian and physicist John Polkingthorne likewise spoke of the deep teleological foundations upon which our cosmos is constructed,

"If you examine the early relationship between expansion and contraction forces in the early picoseconds of the Universe, you will see that the exactitude was so precise that the margin of error and the precision required would be like taking aim at a 1 square inch object, 20 billion light years away on the other end of the Universe and hitting it bulls eye"(Ref 9)

Along side such a feat, the arrow-shooting achievements of Swiss folklore hero William Tell pale into amateurish insignificance. Instead we glimpse the apparent works of a cosmic archer who fashioned our earth and the universe with us in mind.

References

1. The Probability Of Collisions With Earth, See http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/back2.html

2. Hugh Ross (1996), Beyond the Cosmos, Navpress Publishing Group, Colorado Springs, CO

3. Ron Cowen (2008), Sniping at Jupiter, ScienceNews, November 8th, 2008; Vol.174 #10 (p. 9), See http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/37551/title/Sniping_at_Jupiter

4. Alan Hall (1997), Bang and Splat A supercomputer anticipates the catastrophic impact of a giant comet, Scientific American, May 1997

5. The Science Book, Edited Peter Tallack, Published in 2003 by Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London, UK pp. 508-509

6. Hazel Muir (2002), Cosmic airbag could save the planet, NewScientist, 29 August 2002, See article on http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2730-cosmic-airbag-could-save-the-planet.html

7. Marek Abramowicz and George Ellis (1986), The Elusive Anthopic Principle, Nature Volume 337, pp. 411-412

8. Leonard Susskind (2005), 'A Theory of Everything?', Nature 433, 257-259

9. Ravi Zacharias (2005), The Anatomy Of Faith And The Quest For Reason, From the Let My People Think radio series, see http://www.rzim.org